Moneysupermarket was always a risky investment
It maybe a cliche but it's a commonsense one and one worth repeating over and over: You don't put all your eggs in one basket. But that's what the comparison service Moneysupermarket.com appears to have done after it emerged yesterday that 75% of its secured loans business (FT) was tied up with the Carol Vorderman-endorsed loans arm of Barclays, Firstplus, which announced it was closing its doors to new business. The announcement prompted a surprise profits warning from Moneysupermarket and saw its share price plummet by more than 30%. Ouch.
It is a blow for investors who were tempted to buy in at last year's '£1bn' flotation. But the warning signs have always been there. It was, said City commentator David Buik of spread betting firm Cantor Index at the time: 'A huge valuation for a company with a limited track record - however, profitable at the moment.'
You only had to take a look at the prospectus to understand that.
There were 22 pages dedicated to risk factors. These were the headlines:
Risks relating to the Business
Inability to attract a sufficient level of traffic at a reasonable cost.
Visitors to the Group's websites not completing revenue-generating transactions.
Significant decline in the number and quality of the Contracted Providers.
Failure to promote and reinforce consumer trust in the Moneysupermarket.com brand, or negative publicity regarding the Group.
Changes to search engines algorithms or terms of business, that cause the Group's websites to be excluded from or ranked lower in search results.
Failure to introduce innovative products and services.
Significant increase in traffic acquisition costs.
Failure to adapt to rapid technological change.
Failure to generate high quality consumer leads and interest from financial intermediaries.
Failure to prevent or detect and remove fraudulent clicks.
Capacity constraints on the Group's software and hardware systems.
Failure or interruption of the Group's information technology and communications systems.
Failure or interruption in the services provided by bandwidth providers, data centres or other third parties used by the Group.
Failure to protect confidential information against security breaches, or a reluctance from consumers to use the Group's services because of privacy concerns.
Failure of third party technology used by the Group to develop and operate key aggregation and other technologies.
Inability to protect the Group's intellectual property rights.
Intellectual property rights claims against the Group.
Liability for information on the Group's websites.
Inability to achieve the Group's strategic growth objectives.
Certain key providers or advertisers terminating their contracts or ceasing to offer competitive rates.
Fluctuations in the Group's results of operations and the effects of seasonality.
Misstatement of key performance measures.
Inability to attract and retain capable management, and key development, technical, operating, sales and marketing personnel.
Failure to manage the current growth in the Group's business and operations.
Exposure to greater than anticipated tax liabilities.
Tax risks relating to the uncertainty of e-commerce.
Identification or integration of future acquisitions.
Damage to any or all of the buildings comprising the Group's headquarters.
Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Operating Profit may not be indicative of the Group's financial performance.
Risks relating to the Industry
General economic, political and market conditions.
Competition from content, product and service aggregators, from direct providers and potential new entrants.
Inability to support the increasing use of the internet by consumers, providers and advertisers.
New technologies blocking the Group's ability to aggregate data used in its online comparison services.
New technologies blocking advertisements from appearing on a user's computer screen, harming the Group's relationships with advertisers.
Privacy-related regulation of the internet limiting the ways the Group currently collects and uses personal information.
Regulation of the Group's business, including its advertising and customer solicitation and by various governmental authorities.
Incompatibility of the Group's services with devices other than personal computers to access the internet.
Risks relating to the Global Offer and the Shares
The price of the Shares may be volatile and investors may not be able to sell their Shares at or above the price they pay for them.
The interests of the Company's current principal shareholders may differ from those of other shareholders.
Future sales, or the possibility of future sales, of a substantial number of the Shares.
Inability to exercise pre-emption rights.
Comparison services proved in the early years to be one of the most innovative, useful and exciting tools on the Web and while Moneysupermarket.com has plenty of diverse services in its virtual aisles, few if any are as lucrative as the commssion from secured loans. And that revenue stream is drying up.
At flotation, the company was valued at £840m, way off the £1bn it hoped for. At the time of writing, its value is around the £300m mark. Given the risks, whether or how far Moneysupermarket.com shares can recover is impossible to measure. But judging by the plunging share price and by the comments on our recent piece, Can you trust price comparison websites?, the novelty seems to be wearing off.
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