standard.co.uk - Politics Blog

Why the Boris V George contest is hotting up

 

Set aside the scrap between Boris and Ken.  Because if our poll is right, MPs will soon be buzzing about Boris v George.

The big stories over recent weeks have been a gaffe-free (so far) campaign by a maverick but distinctly Tory candidate for London Mayor, and the shipwreck of George Osborne’s third Budget, which seemed almost anti-Conservative to some MPs, with its attack on wealthy philanthropists, grannies and Cornish pasties.

Unluckily, for the Chancellor, his most damaging decisions have all coincided with Boris’s rising stock.  If there is a Johnson victory on May 3, nothing will stop Tory MPs gossiping about a topic that usually kept back for the silly season: Who will take over as Conservative leader when David Cameron stands down in, say, 2017?

Our latest YouGov poll contains plenty of ammunition for the pro-Boris camp. He is seen by over a third as the candidate for the rich, yet stands a clear six points ahead of Ken Livingstone. Clearly, siding with wealth creators is not a bad electoral tactic. Note too the irony that Labour has been attacking Boris's £250k part-time earnings as a columnist in the belief that voters would be outraged. Far from it: Londoners at least seem relaxed about people who are filthy rich and stick up for other rich people.

Boris is 10 points more popular than the Conservatives are in London, even though Labour is gaining on the assembly, which suggests his brand has broader appeal than the more cautious Cameron/Osborne.  He's also miles ahead among women.

It would be hard for Johnson to stop speculation even if he wanted to - and there is little sign that he wants to. In the past year he has denounced the 50p rate, defended the City, attacked Ken Clarke’s sentencing plans, called for a referendum on Europe and attacked housing benefit cuts as “ethnic cleansing”. Some of these positions were clearly designed for his City Hall battle - but others looked like markers with the Tory Right.

Ask Tory ministers who will succeed Cameron and most will instantly name Osborne. But take a straw poll of backbenchers, a more right wing group, and you find few certainties and a lot of anxiety about Conservative values and policies, plus real anger about the Budget.

If Boris Johnson wins he will be the most successful Conservative in Britain today, with a mandate from the biggest British electorate outside a general election. Cameron and Osborne have yet to win a general election outright. The case for Boris is that he looks like a winner.



Joe Murphy

follow me on Twitter       @JoeMurphyLondon

 

 

Budget talks - by video link from the US?

 

The Quad is about to meet at No 10 for crunch talks on the Budget. But I hear that David Cameron is willing to hold further discussions by phone or video link from the United States if necessary this week.

That indicates that the negotiations between the PM, DPM, Chancellor and Treasury Secretary are far from settled.  And all the sticking points are said to be about tax.

“I doubt if everything will be nailed down today,” said a senior source. “But they would like to make significant progress this afternoon.”

A clampdown on stamp duty dodgers and a squeeze on pension tax relief for high earners are both set to be agreed, I hear.

But the Liberal Democrats’ Mansion Tax plan that would hit Londoners in big houses will probably be shelved for at least a year, pending a broad negotiation over taxes hitting the very wealthy, including the 50p income tax rate.

The suggestion is that the price for Mr Osborne announcing his intention to scrap the 50p rate on £150k+ earners, is a major review of all taxes on the very wealthy, including the Mansion Tax and Nick Clegg's new Tycoon Tax idea. In other words, yet another even longer negotiation.

Some Lib Dems have a brutally simple way of making it add up: If the 50p rate is found by the HMRC review to bring in £2.5 billion, then the new taxes on the wealthy should bring in the same amount, whether they are the Mansion Tax, the Tycoon Tax or a further pension squeeze.

This afternoon's talks are not the end of the discussion.

 

Joe Murphy

Follow me on Twitter    @JoeMurphyLondon

 

 

Ed's Class War dog-whistle

 

Ed Miliband won PMQTs today by playing the man as much as the ball.  Most intriguing was his heavy use of phrases like "arrogant" and "smug" towards Cameron.

"Total arrogance! ... How bad do things have to get in our economy to shake him out of his complacency."

"He and his Chancellor are the byword for self-satisfied, smug complacency."

" .. put aside [your] pride and arrogance ... "

At first glance, these are just adjectives that the focus groupies have found to be toxic for the Dave brand. But it's actually a bit more than that.

I'm told by a shadow cabinet source that the key purpose is to reinforce Ed's message that Cameron is "out of touch". But subliminally they go further, by planting the idea that the PM is an over-privileged toff.  Complacency implies he is insulated from the real world. Arrogance suggests he sees himself as belonging to an elite. Smugness, that it is an uncaring elite.  Pride suggests his sense of superiority outweighs his sense of justice.

It's reminiscent of, but much more subtle than, the controversial tactics that Gordon Brown's people tried in 2007 and 2008, when they hired kids in top hats to follow the PM around.  It all backfired, of course, and was (mostly) abandoned after a bit of a hoo-ha at the disastrous Crewe & Nantwich by-election in 2008.

My source insists the current campaign is legitimate because it is reflects Cameron's political choices, which Labour regard as favouring the few, arguing:  "We can't use class war, but we can remind people that he has not experienced in his life what they have to go through in theirs, which influences what he does."

Some may well disagree, viewing it as "playing the man" rather than the issue. But what's undeniable is that it worked this afternoon. Cameron had no ready retort.

 

 

Joe Murphy

follow me on twitter    @JoeMurphyLondon

 

 

Boris slips into the '22 while George is away

 

Pure coincidence, obviously. But as the Chancellor begins his tour of the Far East, ESP learns that Boris will be slipping into his manor while he is away.

The Mayor has been invited to address the mighty 1922 Committee that represents Conservative backbenchers on Wednesday. Any suggestion that Boris will be parading his qualities as a potential leader are wide of the mark, the Mayor's allies insist. Rather, he will be seeking their support for the May mayoral elections, both as door-knockers and artillery in Parliament.

However, it would do no harm to Johnson's profile with newer MPs if he delivers a joke-strewn tub-thumper. More so if he can be tempted to make a few digs at the Lib Dems and the French. The Chancellor's spies will be watching closely.

 

Joe Murphy

follow me on Twitter    @JoeMurphyLondon

 

 

 

Ken and Theresa in Knife Row

After "catgate", Theresa May and Ken Clarke are back at loggerheads, The Standard has been told. This time it is over knife crime.

The Home Secretary is said to be backing automatic custodial sentences for under-18s who threaten people with a knife.

But Justice Secretary Mr Clarke is opposing this mandatory detention of younger teenagers, believing these decision should be down to judges.

The showdown could come to a head next week if Conservative MP Nick de Bois succeeds in tabling an amendment to the Legal Aid, Sentencing and Punishment of Offenders Bill which would impose automatic sentences on 15, 16 and 17-year-olds for using a knife to threaten or endanger life- as well as adults.

Today London Mayor Boris Johnson intervened in the row by backing lowering the age for these automatic sentences.

"In principal, I support extending these sentences to include under 18s, but there are additional considerations we need to factor in to make sure this is implemented successfully," he told The Standard.

"In short, the message needs to be clear that carrying knives results in a long prison term regardless of age."

With Theresa and Boris demanding tougher sentences, David Cameron may have to think again. But he will no doubt be keen to avoid another catfight between Ken and Theresa.

Nicholas Cecil

Ministerial Code to be tightened

The Ministerial Code will be rewritten after the Fox affair, I hear. Sir Gus O'Donnell has concluded that there was a loophole between the spirit of the rules and the letter.

Essentially, he has concluded that the "close and visible association" between Dr Fox and Adam Werritty, at home and abroad, especially combined with the latter's buisiness cards describing himself as an "adviser to the SofS", were all likely to have misled people.

This fuelled an impression that Adam Werritty spoke on behalf of the UK Government.

That key conclusion may sound mild to people who have been reading amazing tales in the papers about Mr Werritty plotting regime change in Iran (and I've no idea if these claims are true or not) but in Whitehall terms this is toxic.  The business of politics depends on everyone saying the same thing: That goes for Cabinet members talking to the UK media, for example, but also for British ministers, diplomats and officials speaking to foreign countries. Any gaps in the rhetoric weaken the overall impact and make other countries speculate that a stance is not solid.

Werritty, who appeared to outsiders to be a member of Fox's staff but talked a completely different language to the Foreign Office representatives, was in Whitehall terms a rogue elephant.  It seems that Dr Fox's arrangements raised alarm bells but he felt that using Mr Werritty as a mate and sounding board did not breach any rules in the Ministerial Code and there was an impasse.

Therefore, the Code must change so that in future it is a firm duty on ministers to keep a distinct line between mates and mandarins.

 

 

Joe Murphy

follow me on Twitter   @JoeMurphyLondon

 

 

Sorry, Ed, Cameron won't oblige

Ed Miliband's hope of dragging the PM to the chamber probably won't be fulfilled. Even if John Bercow agrees to an urgent question on the Fox affair, Downing Street would rather send another minister to face the inevitable Labour cries of "Where's the Prime Minister?"

And the identity of the minister whose afternoon is at risk of being ruined?  Step forward Sir George Young, the sturdy baronet and Leader of the House who is even now at the ready for the call, ESP sources reveal.  A thoroughly nice and dependable bloke, Sir George, in the spirit of Downton's Lord Grantham.

 Stop Press:  Bercow has just indicated in the House he will accept an Urgent Question once the report has been published, which could mean just after Prime Minister's Questions tomorrow.  Stand by, Sir George

 

Joe Murphy

 

 

What Liam will do next

I am told that Liam Fox will continue his Atlantic Bridge project from the backbenches after Gus O'Donnell reports tomorrow.

The former Defence Secretary believes his scheme to forge closer links between British and American right wing politicians is too important to drop.

Friends believe he will be cleared by an official Whitehall inquiry tomorrow of having any personal financial interest in Mr Werritty’s activities.

Meanwhile, Dr Fox is “appalled” by the way his friend Adam Werritty has been “traduced” in media reporting of the controvers, say his friends.

This does not sound like a man who will hide away from the spotlight in months to come. Instead, I am getting a picture of a politician who admits mucking up the handling of his political interests but is of the view that those interests were - and are - right to pursue.

What does that mean for David Cameron?  Unless Gus O'Donnell's report has found serious wrongdoing, Dr Fox may find some sympathetic ears among Tory backbenchers.

Dr Fox resigned from Cabinet on Friday when he again apologised for having “blurred” the line between his ministerial duties and his personal interests.

(Incidentially, he is entitled to pocket £17,206 as severance pay following his resignation.)

I've spoken to sources who think Fox will be criticised for what one called running an “independent foreign policy” after the key findings of Sir Gus's report are published. There were periods when the former minister went off-radar to his own civil servants while he focussed on his international political agenda with Mr Werritty.

 

 

Joe Murphy

follow me on Twitter     @JoeMurphyLondon

 

 

 

Fox insists it's back to business as usual

Liam Fox was in defiant mood this morning as allegations about his self-styled adviser Adam Werritty continued to swirl.

With the support of military chiefs said to be slipping away, the Defence Secretary insisted it was "back to completely normal working mode" at the MoD.

"I’m continuing to do what is needed at the moment which is that the Defence Secretary focuses on Defence issues," Dr Fox said on his way to work.

As if to emphasise the point, the department announced a £300 million new state of the art rehabilitation centre would be built in the Midlands.

A partnership between the MoD, service charities and a "very substantial" donation from the Duke of Westminster, it is set to open by 2017 (by which point, it is worth noting, we should be well out of Afghanistan).

David Cameron repeated his praise of Dr Fox today and said a refusal to sack his Cabinet minister was a sign of strength.

“I think that Liam Fox has done a great job sorting out the defence budget, making sure we have been effective in Libya and clearing up the mess left in the Ministry of Defence by the last Government," the PM said.

“A strong leader recognises that you have to take time to get all the information and answer all the questions. A weak leader is someone who jumps at it because of some artificial deadline. We get all the facts first and then establish a decision.”

But the headlines are not going away, no matter how much the Government might want them to. Let's see what tomorrow brings - more difficult questions, or a gradual slip back towards business as usual.

Craig Woodhouse
Follow me on Twitter @craigawoodhouse

Werritty and the money question

How much did Adam Werritty spend on all those trips abroad where he bumped into Liam Fox?

The answer may be a staggeringly high amount. After all, the Guardian reported that at least one of the 18 trips involved First Class travel.

I've done an analysis based on British Airways fares to the various destinations, which included Dubai five times, plus Hong Kong Washington and Singapore twice each.  Exact costs are impossible to determine because fares vary according to demand so I'm basing this on return flights taken this week.

Flying in BA’s cheapest economy seats, the 18 trips would cost £25,000 in tickets.  However, if Mr Werritty went business class, his ticket expenses alone would have gone up to £77,146. 

Now let's add in two nights stay each trip in a typical £200 a night business hotel, costing another £7,200. 

That would take the total travel cost to £85,000. But then there are all those dinners at the sort of costly restaurants where one might just bump into a millionaire private equity boss.  With such high subsistence costs, he could easily have spent over £100,000.

I think these are conservative estimates.  If, as suggested by the Guardian, he flew First Class then the tickets would have been a third more expensive.

It does beg a pretty big question. Who the hell was paying for all of this and what did they think they were getting out of it?

There may be a perfectly dull and innocent explanation. But I've left two messages on Adam Werritty's mobile and I'm still waiting to for him to phone back and give it.

 

 

Joe Murphy

follow me on Twitter  @JoeMurphyLondon

 

 

 

"Serious mistakes" yet Fox is still running

What an amazing afternoon of drama.  Liam Fox gave a bravura performance in the Commons.  Labour did not land a heavy blow, while senior Tories rallied behind him strongly.

A few moments later Downing Street released its reaction to the interim report by Ursula Brennan ... the statement talks of "serious mistakes" and implies that  the Ministerial Code was not properly adhered to  (a full copy is below). 

Gosh. Ordinarily, such a hefty criticism from No 10 would kill a minister instantly. However the choreography of Fox making an apology first in the Commons means that the sting was pulled.  Cameron can now say he was suitably severe, while Fox can say he has apologised already.

But the chase is still on. Fox's admission that he met Werritty abroad 18 times and 22 times in London raised eyebrows, and we still don't know exactly who was paying Werritty and why.

(Post script:  Defence Sources have given briefings just now where answers to these basic questions were scanty and not very convincing.  The general verdict of hacks present was that the smell is not going away.)

Here's No 10's statement in full:

A Downing Street spokesperson said:  "The Prime Minister has now seen the interim findings of the Ministry of Defence's Permanent Secretary review into Liam Fox's relationship with Mr Adam Werrity, and discussed them with the Cabinet Secretary.
"It is clear, as Liam Fox himself said yesterday, that serious mistakes were made in allowing the distinction between professional responsibilities and personal loyalties to be blurred - and this has clearly raised concerns about impropriety and potential conflicts of interest.  While the Permanent Secretary's initial conclusion is that no classified or other defence related official information was discussed with or given to Mr Werrity by the Secretary of State or the department, it is clear that much tighter procedures are needed within the department to ensure that the Ministerial Code is properly adhered to in future.
"Following these interim findings the Prime Minister has asked the Cabinet Secretary to work with the Permanent Secretary to complete the report, addressing all the remaining questions that have been raised by this issue."

 

Joe Murphy

follow me on Twitter   @JoeMurphyLondon

 

 

Osborne acts for Fox's sake

Two interesting things emerging as Foxie fights for his life.

First, there is an operation going on to help him involving George Osborne's supporters. This morning we had Greg Hands, the Chelsea and Fulham MP, going on radio and TV. Hands is Osbrone's PPS.

Then, in the Commons Fox was backed by both Hands and Matt Hancock, another trusted Osborne-ite. 

To be backed by one mate of the Chancellor is lucky. To get two in one day smacks of intrigue. Does Osborne hope for Fox's endorsement in a leadership contest in future (a valuable endorsement, especially if George is up against Boris Johnson).

Second, it emerges that Labour's defence team was treated to a freebie trip to Washington by the company run by Harvey Boulter, the same businessman that engineered a meeting with Fox via Adam Werritty. 

To be fair to the Labour trio who enjoyed the all-expenses paid trip (shadow ministers Jim Murphy and Michael Dugher plus an aide) they declared it openly in the register of interests and are not under the obligations of ministerial duty.

But it is striking that Boulter seems to have been spending big bucks to seek influence across the political spectrum.  This revelation does not get Liam Fox off the hook, but it muddies the water considerably and makes lectures about the need for long spoons a tad more difficult to press home.

 

 

Joe Murphy

follow me on Twitter  @JoeMurphyLondon

 

 

 

Revealed: The Tory conference slogan (and more)

We can reveal that David Cameron's confernce will open under the slogan .... drum roll ....

"Leadership For A Better Future."

It's a phrase that acknowledges tough times but contains that classic Cameron optimism, pointing to a rturn of the good times if people stick with a tough leader.

In today's Standard there's a lively interview with the charming Tory chairman Sayeeda Warsi, who reveals the slogan and explains why leadership is the prime focus of the conference - and why families will "instinctively" swallow the tough medicine prescribed by Dr Cameron.

 "It would be so easy for us to get the [government’s] chequebook out and not make the tough calls. But ask people if they would prefer to have it easy now or, by taking tough decisions, create a better future for their children, most will instinctively choose to put their children first.”

Warsi is on her usual bubbly form. Shge reveals that she, Cameron and other ministers will be recroding audiobooks for blind chuildren during the conference (it's their latest social action project and us Press boys are invited to do the same).

The first considered Tory attack on Ed Miliband's speech is also there. She says Labour created the something-for-nothing society and asks how Ed's speech squares with Labour's opposition to removing legal aid from cheeky squatters.

There's lots more ... a return to old fashioned conference debates, some amazing techie innovations etc.

But my favourite line is a cracking joke about when Chris Huhne compared to the evil Dr Geobbels. “When I was young my mum wanted me to be a doctor and I never lived up to her expectations [Warsi became a lawyer]. What I always say is, the Conservatives might have made me a Lady - but it took the Liberal Democrats to make me a doctor.”

 

 

Joe Murphy

follow me on twitter  @JoeMurphyLondon

 

 

Danny admits we are better off outside the euro

Breaking news ... Danny Alexander, the former campaign chief for Britain in Europe, has admitted that it's a good thing he didn't win the Battle of Sterling.

He 'fessed up in an interview with the Evening Standard, when asked if it was lucky that the pro-euro campaign did not prevail.

"I think there is no doubt at all that the flexibilities we have, not being part of the euro, have been very helpful to the UK in dealing with the economic crisis we've had," he said.

Asked if that was politico-speak for admitting he was wrong, DA responded: "Who knows how it would have un-folded if things had worked out differently. I'm still a very firm believer that our national interest lies as a wholehearted member of the EU engaging positively to get the best for Britain. That's what always motivated me and that has not changed one iota."  He did not, however, say he still wants to join the euro.

There are lots of other good angles in the interview with this unassuming Lib Deb star.  He tells the unions that the Government is making contingency plans to defeat the strikes; urges his party to stand firm with the austerity policies and the Coalition; attacks Boris Johnson over the 50p rate and rebuffs the Tory Right on repatriation of powers.

But I like his description of why being brought up on a remote island (Colonsay, pop. 110) made him the man he is today.

 

Joe Murphy

follow me  on Twitter  .... @JoeMurphyLondon

 

 

 

Cameron reassures the shires

After a week that began with Nick Clegg seizing the education agenda, David Cameron has grabbed it back on behalf of Tory voters in the leafy shires and suburbs.

Cleggie stressed on Monday that he had ensured the next wave of free schools will go to deprived areas, along with his pupil; premium to help poorer pupils.

Now Cameron has spoken up in his Norwich speech for the middle class parents who fume that their own schools are OK but just not good enough.

He calls them "coasting schools" and said too many were mediocre. He contrasted  schools in his own Oxfordshire and in Michael Gove's Surrey with the success of two inner London schools - Walworth Academy, south-east London,  and Burlington Danes Academy, in Hammersmith.

The London schools have high numbers on free school meals but manage 70 and 75 per cent getting five or more good GCSEs.

“Only 16  state secondary schools in these two relatively affluent counties did better than those two inner city schools,” he said.

“Put another way, more than 4 out of 5 state schools in Surrey and Oxfordshire are doing worse than 2 state schools in relatively deprived parts of inner London.”

Mr Cameron went on: “That must be a wake-up call. Why is there this difference?  Why are these schools coasting along?”

This looks like a response to MPs like Nadine Dorries who complain that the Lib Dems seem to be dominating policy. Stand by for more like it in the conference season.

 

 

Joe Murphy

follow me on Twitter    @JoeMurphyLondon

Curtains for Clegg?

When a Lib Dem as fearless and well connected as Lord Oakeshott warns it will be "Curtains for the Coalition" if the big banks are let off the hook again (see our fascinating interview here) then you can be sure that the PM and Chancellor will be reading every word closely.

But is the curtain falling for Nick Clegg?  Just read his utterly riveting reply to my question whether Nick Clegg will still be leader at the next election and beyond.

"What matters for Liberal Democrats and our future as an independent party is that we fight the next election as a completely independent party, at least equidistant between the Conservatives and Labour."

He then pointed out that 38 of 57 seats were won against the Tories, with Labour tactical votes. "The only way we can retain those seats is by persuading those voters it is still worth supporting us. That is the real strategic imperative and we have not long to do it.

"How do we get from here to a credibly independent Liberal Democrat Party in 2015? I think it will be difficult to persuade people we are a completely independent force if, on the eve of the poll, Liberal Democrat ministers are still having to defend what many would see as Tory policies."

Interpret this as you will but several points are obvious.  He did not say, "Of course Nick will be leader!".  He did say that the party needs to dramatically change people's perceptions in a short space of time. He suggested the Coalition will end before the election, leaving Britain with a short period of minority Conservative rule with the Lib Dems crossing the floor to the Opposition benches. In such a situation, appointing a new leader might be logical.

And just who might that be? Lord O is not saying, but read his mischievous response when I asked if he thinks his old pal Vince Cable will retire at the 2015 election. "I've never seen him more full of beans. I'm sure Vince's best years are yet to come."

 

 

Joe Murphy

follow me on twitter  @JoeMurphyLondon

 

 

 

 

Blair & the Massage parlour

I had to smile seeing this in the window of a Chinese massage and acupuncture clinic in Chinatown last night.

 

I admire their cheek.  And who knows -  maybe when the Chicot report into Iraq comes out this autumn, he will need to pay a visit.

 

 

Joe Murphy

Follow me on Twitter   @JoeMurphyLondon

 

 

PM will give evidence under oath

It was not clear from Lord Justice Leveson's statement, but ESP can reveal that David Cameron and every other witness will give evidence under oath.

Sources close to the inquiry stress that the PM is not being singled out but that all witnesses are being treated the same.

Downing Street says Mr Cameron has nothing to hide and will give evidence in whatever form the judge asks.

It is possible that ministers from the Labour government, and perhaps Gordon Brown, will also be called to give evidence. They too would be under oath.

 

 

Joe Murphy

@JoeMurphyLondon

 

 

Osborne paves the way for a girl to be Heir to the Throne

George Osborne just made a historic announcement about the Royal finances.

His reforms, signalled first in his Budget a year ago, pave the way for a first-born daughter of Kate and William to be Heir to the Throne.

The heir is supported by £16 million a year revenues from the Duchy of Cornwall estate. At present the Duke is Prince Charles.  But a girl cannot become a duke, so Osborne is changing the rules.

“We propose to correct this anomaly by making clear that in future the revenues of the Duchy of Cornwall will go to the heir whether or not they are the Duke of Cornwall,” said the Chancellor.

On its own this does not abolish the rule of primogeniture, which means a first-born daughter of Kate and Wills would be superseded in the succession by a younger brother. But it shows that ministers are putting the finances in place for the day when the law of succession is brought into the modern age.

Other reforms include propoer scrutiny of the Royal finances for the first time and a real-terms cut in the Queen’s income over the next few years, reflecting the austere times.

Full audits of Royal spending will be undertaken by the National Audit Office.

Best of all, lifelong republican Margaret Hodge and her Public Accounts Committee will be empowered to summon the Keeper of the Privy Purse for questioning.

“This is a big historic extension of parliamentary scrutiny,” said the Chancellor whose reputation as a moderniser will be enhanced.

Joe Murphy

 

 

 

 

 

Match of Today - PMQs edition

David Cameron v Speaker Bercow
Ground: Prime Minister’s Questions
Kickoff: 12 noon

Ouch! If looks could kill, Bercow would be dead. It happened when he slapped down Cameron the middle of a glorious tease about Ed Miliband. “We’re very grateful,” dismissed the Speaker, oozing irony. Tories gasped, Labour MPs whooped, and the Prime Minister muttered under his breath, his face a portrait of suppressed rage.

Minutes later, the Speaker rebuked him for giving a long answer to Labour MP Clive Efford on policing: “Order! Prime Minister’s Questions is principally for backbenchers.” Asked about Bercow’s chairmanship, a No 10 aide said: “I think I will just leave you with ‘the look’.”

Score: Cameron , 0. Speaker 2.

 

Whips behaving badly

Last night a Tory whip marched into the Tea Room and bellowed:“Well, guys, we would be going home earlier if it was not for the following people . . . ”

The whip then spat out the names of Conservative MPs backing last night's amendment to the Finance Bill in favour of married couples being allowed to share their tax free allowances.

A week after Mark Pritchard revealed how the whips tried bribery and threats to make him drop his motion for a circus animal ban, they were out in force again.

Fiona Bruce, the Congleton MP who tabled the amendment for a married couples tax break came under "a lot of pressure" from the heavies to withdraw it.

In the end she stepped aside ex-minister Edward Leigh, a rock hard Cornerstone Group founder, to take her place as proposer.

Moving the amendment, Leigh referred to the bullying whips in coded terms, telling the House:

“Whatever else has been going on in the background this afternoon -- I need not go into that - it was my duty to move it.”

He said many Christians and other supporters would have been baffled if the vote had not happened. “I was not prepared to let that happen.”

Such passion may seem odd for an amendment that stood no chance and was duly lost by 473 votes to 23 - a majority for the Government of 450.  But the rebels made a point and the issue remains a live one that will have to be dealt with during this parliament.

Meanwhile, the whips are said to be falling out with each other over the tactics of recent days, possibly spooked by finding their traditional cloak of anonymity slip from their shoulders in recent days.

 

UPDATE: Paul Waugh spotted a great new eurphemism in Edward Leigh's speech:  "Shufflings offstage".  Leigh said: "This was a solemn commitment. So when this new clause was promoted this afternoon there were all sorts of shufflings offstage [Waugh's italics] to try to prevent its debate."

 

 

Joe Murphy

Gove: heads' "duty" to keep strike-hit schools open

Many parents will back the letter sent by Michael Gove to headteachers today telling them they have a "moral duty" to keep schools open on strike days.

The Education Secretary wants heads to draw up emergency plans to stop school closures causing havoc for millions of families when teachers walk out on June 30 as expected.

Appealing over the heads of union bosses, he said: "My view is that we all have a strong moral duty to pupils and parents to keep schools open."

He branded the threatened industrial action as "not justified" as talks are ongoing between the Government and unions in the dispute over public sector pensions.

Mr Gove has the interest of pupils at heart but the Government also wants the public on its side as it heads into a potential wave of strikes this summer.

 Nicholas Cecil

 

 

Match of Today - PMQ edition

David Cameron v Ed Miliband
Ground: Prime Minister’s Questions
Kickoff: 12 noon

Miliband was crafty. He called Cameron “crass and high handed” for telling military leaders “I’ll do the talking”. Then he wrongfooted the PM on whether the DNA of suspected “rapists” should be kept or destroyed. Cameron racked his brain for details and was jeered for taking whispered lessons from  Theresa May. “At least we talk to each other,” quipped Cam, who counter-attacked over a shadow cabinet split on Ed Balls’s £51 billion VAT cut. Alas, it failed when Speaker Bercow brusquely silenced the out-of-order PM. Tories glowered at Bercow.

Score: Cameron, 1. Miliband 3.

Ken: "I agree with Boris"

In a battle of political heavyweights, Boris Johnson landed a haymaker on Ken Clarke today with a ferocious attack on his "soft" sentences policy to free offenders half way through their jail term if they plead guilty early.

"Soft is the perfect way to enjoy French cheese, but not how we should approach punishing criminals," declares the Mayor of London.

He also argued that prisoners should only be released once they had abandoned their criminal ways.

With Tory MPs rallying around Mr Johnson for standing up for "Conservative values", how would the Justice Secretary respond? Would bruiser Clarke hit back?

"Boris’ views chime exactly with mine," he says somewhat mischievously.

"Prisons should be places where we punish criminals, and then provide rehabilitation to stop them committing more crimes and creating new victims in the future."

But he side-stepped Mr Johnson's attack on his controversial plans for shorter sentences due to be unveiled this week

Nicholas Cecil

Clegg's school choice

Nick Clegg gave an awfully big hint at the Press Gallery Lunch Cluib that he may send his kids to the London Oratory School, despite being an atheist.

Well, good for him.

There really is no reason for this to be controversial.  As he pointed out, his wife and children are Catholics and they have every right to choose any school they like. 

It's a fantastic place with a public school ethos (haircuts, homework, holidays - and definitely not bog-standard) but nevertheless is a state-funded comprehensive.

It's the school Tony Blair chose when he lived much further away. Labour deputy leader Harriet Harman picked a selective grammar that was CofE even though the party is against selection and she had cited her husband's faith to justify using a Cathlic school previously.  We all made a fuss at the time but neither Blair nor Harman were wrong - they wanted good schools, which makes them just like every other London parent.

Here's the real issue:  London parents are less likely to get into their first choice of school than people in any other region.

Joe Murphy

Ken says no to Crow's cash

KEN Livingstone has ruled out accepting donations for his mayoral campaign from the RMT union which is threatening more strikes which will paralyse London.

The Labour mayoral candidate made the pledge after the RMT’s militant leader Bob Crow appeared to offer to financially support Mr Livingstone’s campaign to oust Boris Johnson as London Mayor.

“I’ve never been apart from Ken. We have differences like I have with my brother and sister but overall, Ken’s a good bloke’. Give us a shout Ken when you want some money,” Mr Crow told LBC earlier this week.

The Conservatives were quick to jump on these comments, given the RMT and Mr Crow's deep unpopularity among many Londoners, to attack Mr Livingstone.

“In office he dealt with Marxist South American dictators; out of office he took money from the Iranians and in his bid for re-election he’s now being offered donations from unreconstructed union barons,” says Transport Secretary Philip Hammond. 

But while other unions are bankrolling the Labour contender’s campaign, Mr Livingstone denied he would take money from the RMT

“We have not received any donation from the RMT, have received no offer of a donation and as the RMT is not affiliated to Labour will not be doing so as it does not arise,” says his spokesman.

He also sought to turn the tables on Mr Johnson by suggesting he had “something to hide from donations from his banking chums”.

Mr Johnson’s camp, though, sought to keep the spotlight on Mr Livingstone’s union allies.

“To divert attention from his failure to condemn the RMT’s Wimbledon strikes, he attacks someone else,” said a spokesman for Mr Johnson.

Nicholas Cecil

 

Match of Today - PMQ edition

Match of Today

David Cameron v Ed Miliband
Ground: Prime Minister’s Questions
Kickoff: 12 noon

Miliband could not afford another missed penalty - and shied away from aiming at the big issues like the NHS reforms that Cameron was briefed to the eyeballs on. Did the PM know that the welfare reforms would “make 7000 cancer patients worse off by as much as £94 a week?”  Cameron said there had been no change to terminally ill patients - which was not the question. Red Ed crowed: “He doesn’t know what’s in his own Bill!” Cameron got cross and accused him of “a smokescreen” to cover his party splits on the wider reform issues. “Apologise!” cried Labour MPs. More heat than illumination. But honour was maintained for Miliband.

Score:  Cameron 2. Miliband 2

Horse-trading?

A Tory MP met someone well placed in the Cameron machine who told him privately that there were two reasons for the multiple climbdowns on the NHS reforms.

His source said the first reason was that the Health and Social Care Bill was in real danger of failing to get through the Lords, where Lib Dem peers were waiting in ambush.

The second alleged reason was more controversial.  "We have to give the Lib Dems more concessions so that they do not block the new boundary changes."

Ouch! That is a far cry from David Cameron's assurance to Tory MPs yesterday (and in the Mail article today) that he just wanted to improve a Bill because "some of the details were wrong".

If the well-places source is right then there is some pretty tough horse-trading going on.  If the source is wrong, it still suggests that Tory-Lib Dem relations are entering an ice age.

My Tory MP chum is furious.  "Knowing the Lib Dems as we now do, it is highly likely they will screw us over on the boundary changes, even though we have given them so many concessions on the health service," he charges.

The boundary changes - making seats the same size and cutting the number of MPs to 600 - might be worth a dozen or more seats to the Tories (although a recent study said such gains were a pipedream).  Although the boundary shake-up was in the Coalition Agreement, there has to be a parliamentary vote in 2013 to approve the new map which will be drawn up over the next two years.  It is not hard to imagine a last-minute bit of bargaining for it to go through.

 

Joe Murphy

The House That Looks Like Danny Alexander

Spotted in darkest Leicestershire ...

 

 

 

Joe Murphy

Pickles's pie emporium

Eric Pickles has had a great wheeze to satisfy both the taxpayer and his appetite.

He's asked officials to investigate prospects for renting out the giant foyer of his ministerial HQ, Eland House, for a Waitrose or other chain store branch.

Perhaps the M&S food hall opposite is too far for him to walk for munchies.

This is the same area that Harriet Harman blew £2.4 million on a grand refit - including £4,000 each Parisian sofas and whacky green "peace pods" where civil servants are meant to meet in a tranquil environment or something like that.

The ground floor has floorspace worth around a million pounds a year in rents, according to valuations held at the Land Registry.And it's bang in the middle of the upmarket Cardinal Place development near Victoria Station.  Which means Pickles might well rake in a bundle of cash if Tesco move in.

And, finally, Harriet's peace pods might come to good use - as cosy nooks to scoff that ready meal you just bought for lunch.

Joe Murphy

MATCH OF TODAY

David Cameron v Ed Miliband
Ground: Prime Minister’s Questions
Kickoff: 12 noon

He stood at the penalty spot, an open goal before him, the crowd silent . . .  and Miliband blew it, the ball spinning harmlessly into the undergrowth.
“We read in the newspapers today,” began Labour’s leader, referring to the sentencing U-turn.  Cameron scoffed: “Do something more useful than just read the newspapers,”
Ed tried again: “He’s in a total mess.” Cameron quoted the shadow justice secretary, backing Ken Clarke’s plans. Miliband hurriedly turned to the NHS, earning jeers of “bandwagon jumping”. Labour MPs sagged, memories of Neil Kinnock and Westland in the air.

Score: Cameron 3.  Miliband 1

Those boundary changes

Several of the big name London MPs are in danger of being unseated by the boundary changes, according to think tank Democratic Audit.

Here's some of the bad news.

Tom Brake’s constituency of Carshalton and Wallington will be abolished while Sarah Teather’s seat at Brent Central would “flip to Labour”, according to Democractic Audit's research and rather clever guesswork.

Former Foreign Secretary Sir Malcolm Rifkind may see his safe berth in Kensington turn into a Labour marginal. Which might make a percect home for Labour's Karen Buck, who would be in danger of losing marginal Westminster North after changes.

Glenda Jackson would be another loser on paper - but given the collapse of Lib Dem support recently anything is possible in her three-way battle.

DA's analysis is the first really detailed assessment of the changes. I won't list all the London seats that they reckon will become more or less marginal but you can see the detail on their website.

Most people I talked to today agree with DA that the Conservatives will be disappointed if they hope that the shake up will hand them extra seats.  But I struggled to find any sign of the Lib Dems backing away from their side of the deal.

Anxiety about the shake up is only just warming up. Draft seat boundaries will be out in September, just in time for a heated debate at the party conferences.

Joe Murphy

 

Clegg gets muscular

Clegg has gone for it on the NHS Bill in his speech today (full text here).

I don't mean the blood-curdling passage about "dog-eat-dog competition". That sounds fierce but in fact he doesn't actually claim that the Bill would cause such a phenomenon.

The more significant bits are him slowing everything down. He criticises "arbitrary deadlines" and talks of phasing in the introduction of choice. "We're going to tread carefully," he says.

The most significant move of all is not actually in the speech but came out of the Q&A afterwards. He said the Bill would have to go back into the committee stage, which implies many weeks of delays, to get the detail right. 

My understanding is that Andrew Lansley signed off the speech beforehand but was not expecting this little hand grenade. 

Taken together, the Clegg words do not attack the principles of the Bill (he explicitly backs chouice where it will help patients) but are a flat rejection of the way Lansley has rushed everything out.  I suspect that David Cameron, who also approved the speech, would agree with a lot of it. Certainly, there are many around No 10 who think the NHS Bill is so fraught with political risk that they would be glad to see it long-grassed.

Over to you, Health Secretary

Joe Murphy

 

Carbon clash, round 2

Yesterday it emerged (via Allegra Stratton at the Guardian) that Lib-Dem Cabinet ministers Chris Huhne and Vince Cable had clashed over carbon reduction targets put forward by the Government's climate change advisory body.

But I hear it's not the only Cabinet battle which Huhne, the increasingly visible Energy and Climate Change Secretary, is locked in over greenhouse gas emissions.

He is facing stiff opposition from Chancellor George Osborne and Transport Secretary Philip Hammond, as well as Cable, over his push for the European Union to go beyond existing targets for 2020.

The trio are concerned that Huhne's wish to raise the current aim from a 20 per cent cut in emissions to 30 per cent will make Britain less attractive to foreign firms, and are also worried that other European states will not follow suit - leaving the UK out on a limb.

Huhne has been pressing the case for tougher targets with his European counterparts in recent months, even travelling to the continent at weekends in a bid to gain support.

But a Government source said the move lacked backing at home, adding: “The Treasury, Transport and Business Department have got misgivings about being so ambitious because of its impact on UK competitiveness.”

Coming so soon after his Cabinet outburst over AV and his attack on "Goebbels-like" tactics aimed at Baroness Warsi, it seems Huhne is running out of friends around the top table.

(Incidentally, a frontbench colleague of the Energy Secretary summed up last week's rant thus: "Chris has had a fireworks display. That's what politicians do. I hope once it's over he will get back to the business of Government.")

Craig Woodhouse
Follow me on Twitter @craigawoodhouse