standard.co.uk - Politics Blog

Osborne's West Country wipeout

With both the granny tax and the pie tax looking like massive own goals, there surely had to be a sensible political motive behind George Osborne's Budget. After two days of head-scratching, and following the announcement of minimum prices for alcohol, I think I've worked it out: it's all a clever bid to rid the Lib-Dems from the West Country.

While much of the focus on charging VAT on hot food has focused on the fact it wiped millions off Greggs' share price, down in the South West it is being painted as pasty tax - an assault on the Cornish icon.

Lib-Dem MPs Stephen Gilbert (St Austell and Newquay) and Andrew George (St Ives) are far from happy about it, vowing Cornishmen would fight on the beaches to oppose the pasty tax.

It's a Coalition policy that is likely to hit them - and fellow Cornish Lib-Dem Dan Rogerson - at the ballot box. With the South West also a favoured hang-out of Britain's increasingly ageing population, so is the move to squeeze pensioner allowances - potentially allowing Tory MPs to sweep them away west of the Tamar.

Now the minimum pricing for booze has been unveiled, and that's got cider producers (predominantly based in the South West) up in arms too. It'll go down particularly badly in the Lib-Dem cluster of seats around Somerset, where cider is virtually worshipped.

My Friday afternoon theory is Osborne hopes these measures will make the Lib-Dems even more unpopular than they already are in some key heartlands, and is relying on Tory voters in the South West to stay loyal. If that happens, it brings an outright Conservative majority ever closer.

Craig Woodhouse
Follow me on Twitter @craigawoodhouse

Budget talks - by video link from the US?

 

The Quad is about to meet at No 10 for crunch talks on the Budget. But I hear that David Cameron is willing to hold further discussions by phone or video link from the United States if necessary this week.

That indicates that the negotiations between the PM, DPM, Chancellor and Treasury Secretary are far from settled.  And all the sticking points are said to be about tax.

“I doubt if everything will be nailed down today,” said a senior source. “But they would like to make significant progress this afternoon.”

A clampdown on stamp duty dodgers and a squeeze on pension tax relief for high earners are both set to be agreed, I hear.

But the Liberal Democrats’ Mansion Tax plan that would hit Londoners in big houses will probably be shelved for at least a year, pending a broad negotiation over taxes hitting the very wealthy, including the 50p income tax rate.

The suggestion is that the price for Mr Osborne announcing his intention to scrap the 50p rate on £150k+ earners, is a major review of all taxes on the very wealthy, including the Mansion Tax and Nick Clegg's new Tycoon Tax idea. In other words, yet another even longer negotiation.

Some Lib Dems have a brutally simple way of making it add up: If the 50p rate is found by the HMRC review to bring in £2.5 billion, then the new taxes on the wealthy should bring in the same amount, whether they are the Mansion Tax, the Tycoon Tax or a further pension squeeze.

This afternoon's talks are not the end of the discussion.

 

Joe Murphy

Follow me on Twitter    @JoeMurphyLondon

 

 

Ed's Class War dog-whistle

 

Ed Miliband won PMQTs today by playing the man as much as the ball.  Most intriguing was his heavy use of phrases like "arrogant" and "smug" towards Cameron.

"Total arrogance! ... How bad do things have to get in our economy to shake him out of his complacency."

"He and his Chancellor are the byword for self-satisfied, smug complacency."

" .. put aside [your] pride and arrogance ... "

At first glance, these are just adjectives that the focus groupies have found to be toxic for the Dave brand. But it's actually a bit more than that.

I'm told by a shadow cabinet source that the key purpose is to reinforce Ed's message that Cameron is "out of touch". But subliminally they go further, by planting the idea that the PM is an over-privileged toff.  Complacency implies he is insulated from the real world. Arrogance suggests he sees himself as belonging to an elite. Smugness, that it is an uncaring elite.  Pride suggests his sense of superiority outweighs his sense of justice.

It's reminiscent of, but much more subtle than, the controversial tactics that Gordon Brown's people tried in 2007 and 2008, when they hired kids in top hats to follow the PM around.  It all backfired, of course, and was (mostly) abandoned after a bit of a hoo-ha at the disastrous Crewe & Nantwich by-election in 2008.

My source insists the current campaign is legitimate because it is reflects Cameron's political choices, which Labour regard as favouring the few, arguing:  "We can't use class war, but we can remind people that he has not experienced in his life what they have to go through in theirs, which influences what he does."

Some may well disagree, viewing it as "playing the man" rather than the issue. But what's undeniable is that it worked this afternoon. Cameron had no ready retort.

 

 

Joe Murphy

follow me on twitter    @JoeMurphyLondon

 

 

Nick Clegg's McBreakfast

Nick Clegg was at the McDonald's training centre in East Finchley this morning, to hail an announcement that the burger giant is creating 2,500 new jobs this year.

Given that it was an early morning call (a return to his "alarm clock Britain" campaign?), the Deputy PM enjoyed a spot of breakfast while he was there.

He tucked into a sausage and egg McMuffin and washed it down with a cup of tea, I'm told.

Looking at the details of the jobs announcement, it's no surprise Clegg chose to visit. While McJobs have attracted criticism in the past, more than half of the 2,500 announced today are expected to go to under-25s, with almost a third to first-time workers. Clegg has said tackling record youth unemployment - running at over 1 million - is his top priority for 2012.

(UPDATE: Labour's Kevin Brennan has just brilliantly coined it the Clegg McMuffin on Twitter)

Craig Woodhouse
Follow me on Twitter @craigawoodhouse

Balls hits back over Tourette's jibe

Ed Balls has just been on the radio, making some comments that are raising a few eyebrows in Westminster.

The shadow chancellor, David Cameron's irritator-in-chief, was hitting back at David Cameron over the accusation he behaves like "someone with Tourette's" during PMQs. (The Prime Minister apologised after making the comments, sparked by his annoyance at Balls' endless hand gestures and frontbench barracking).

Condemning it as "offensive" - though insisting it hadn't hurt him - Balls painted himself as whiter-than-white in the political arena.

Balls said: “I think people want an opposition which takes the argument to the Government, and sometimes David Cameron gives the impression that he deserves to be there and nobody deserves to criticise his views and his policies.

“And he obviously attempts, whether it’s women who he patronises, or me who makes offensive comments about - which don’t offend me but did offend many people up and down the country suffering from Tourette’s - I don’t think that’s the right way to do politics.

“I think you should debate not about smear but about policy.”

Vowing to continue criticising the Government’s “failing” policies, he went on: “I will do that in a direct, clear, honest and open way, but I’m not going to say offensive things about David Cameron or anyone else.”

This from a man who has a reputation as a street fighter, both inside Labour and when taking on the opposition. He even appeared in a video game after Alistair Darling said the "forces of hell" had been unleashed against him.

It's worth noting he dismissed the idea his robust style turns voters off during the World and One interview, so don't expect him to change. PMQs would be duller if he did...

Craig Woodhouse
Follow me on Twitter @craigawoodhouse

Making light of the economy

As George Osborne prepares to deliver his autumn statement on Tuesday, the accepted wisdom is he'll have to downgrade growth forecasts and paint a bleak picture of the economy.

If he's looking for some light relief along the way, he could check out comedian Rufus Jones' representation of him as part of a campaign calling on the Chancellor to tackle food speculation on the markets.

Jones, who recently played Terry Jones in the BBC Monty Python film Flying Circus, hardly paints a flattering picture of Osborne - an interesting campaign tactic if ever I've seen one.

But running through the short videos on The Real George Osborne is an amusing fictional rivalry with Boris Johnson over the future Tory leadership. Incredulous that the Mayor is a serious contender, at one point Osborne declares: "Boris looks like a polar bear on wheels".

Whether it will succeed in getting the Chancellor to act on food speculation when the economy is flatlining is another matter.

Craig Woodhouse
Follow me on Twitter @craigawoodhouse

Danny admits we are better off outside the euro

Breaking news ... Danny Alexander, the former campaign chief for Britain in Europe, has admitted that it's a good thing he didn't win the Battle of Sterling.

He 'fessed up in an interview with the Evening Standard, when asked if it was lucky that the pro-euro campaign did not prevail.

"I think there is no doubt at all that the flexibilities we have, not being part of the euro, have been very helpful to the UK in dealing with the economic crisis we've had," he said.

Asked if that was politico-speak for admitting he was wrong, DA responded: "Who knows how it would have un-folded if things had worked out differently. I'm still a very firm believer that our national interest lies as a wholehearted member of the EU engaging positively to get the best for Britain. That's what always motivated me and that has not changed one iota."  He did not, however, say he still wants to join the euro.

There are lots of other good angles in the interview with this unassuming Lib Deb star.  He tells the unions that the Government is making contingency plans to defeat the strikes; urges his party to stand firm with the austerity policies and the Coalition; attacks Boris Johnson over the 50p rate and rebuffs the Tory Right on repatriation of powers.

But I like his description of why being brought up on a remote island (Colonsay, pop. 110) made him the man he is today.

 

Joe Murphy

follow me  on Twitter  .... @JoeMurphyLondon

 

 

 

Balls: Lead the world, George

Shadow chancellor Ed Balls was making an interesting argument about the economy on the radio this morning.

Essentially he was saying that George Osborne should water down austerity measures to show global leadership because only Britain has the right political climate for such a move.

He told Today: "You can't have credibility without growth. The problem is in the eurozone, politically they are completely stuck, they can't reach a political agreement about what needs to be done. In America, tragically with the election coming up, the Congress and President Obama are at loggerheads, they can't politically resolve this. The irony is the one country which has got the political strength to change course is Britain and to make that argument in the world, the problem is, it's almost the opposite problem.

"Our Coalition has decided the cornerstone is sticking to a deficit reduction plan which isn't working, has flatlined our economy. Our problem is, we can't argue for sanity in the eurozone, in America, if we are sticking to a failing policy in Britain."

I find it hard to believe that Labour would hail Osborne as a strong Chancellor if he tore up his deficit-busting plans and tried to paint it as a way of "saving the world" - as Gordon Brown might put it.

There was another eye-catching line from Balls on the same topic, which might have had Angela Merkel choking on her breakfast.

He said: "In Europe austerity isn't working but the German people are not going to face up to that unless they are led to do so...Here in Britain we should be leading those debates."

Craig Woodhouse
Follow me on Twitter @craigawoodhouse