standard.co.uk - Politics Blog

Why the Boris V George contest is hotting up

 

Set aside the scrap between Boris and Ken.  Because if our poll is right, MPs will soon be buzzing about Boris v George.

The big stories over recent weeks have been a gaffe-free (so far) campaign by a maverick but distinctly Tory candidate for London Mayor, and the shipwreck of George Osborne’s third Budget, which seemed almost anti-Conservative to some MPs, with its attack on wealthy philanthropists, grannies and Cornish pasties.

Unluckily, for the Chancellor, his most damaging decisions have all coincided with Boris’s rising stock.  If there is a Johnson victory on May 3, nothing will stop Tory MPs gossiping about a topic that usually kept back for the silly season: Who will take over as Conservative leader when David Cameron stands down in, say, 2017?

Our latest YouGov poll contains plenty of ammunition for the pro-Boris camp. He is seen by over a third as the candidate for the rich, yet stands a clear six points ahead of Ken Livingstone. Clearly, siding with wealth creators is not a bad electoral tactic. Note too the irony that Labour has been attacking Boris's £250k part-time earnings as a columnist in the belief that voters would be outraged. Far from it: Londoners at least seem relaxed about people who are filthy rich and stick up for other rich people.

Boris is 10 points more popular than the Conservatives are in London, even though Labour is gaining on the assembly, which suggests his brand has broader appeal than the more cautious Cameron/Osborne.  He's also miles ahead among women.

It would be hard for Johnson to stop speculation even if he wanted to - and there is little sign that he wants to. In the past year he has denounced the 50p rate, defended the City, attacked Ken Clarke’s sentencing plans, called for a referendum on Europe and attacked housing benefit cuts as “ethnic cleansing”. Some of these positions were clearly designed for his City Hall battle - but others looked like markers with the Tory Right.

Ask Tory ministers who will succeed Cameron and most will instantly name Osborne. But take a straw poll of backbenchers, a more right wing group, and you find few certainties and a lot of anxiety about Conservative values and policies, plus real anger about the Budget.

If Boris Johnson wins he will be the most successful Conservative in Britain today, with a mandate from the biggest British electorate outside a general election. Cameron and Osborne have yet to win a general election outright. The case for Boris is that he looks like a winner.



Joe Murphy

follow me on Twitter       @JoeMurphyLondon

 

 

Osborne's West Country wipeout

With both the granny tax and the pie tax looking like massive own goals, there surely had to be a sensible political motive behind George Osborne's Budget. After two days of head-scratching, and following the announcement of minimum prices for alcohol, I think I've worked it out: it's all a clever bid to rid the Lib-Dems from the West Country.

While much of the focus on charging VAT on hot food has focused on the fact it wiped millions off Greggs' share price, down in the South West it is being painted as pasty tax - an assault on the Cornish icon.

Lib-Dem MPs Stephen Gilbert (St Austell and Newquay) and Andrew George (St Ives) are far from happy about it, vowing Cornishmen would fight on the beaches to oppose the pasty tax.

It's a Coalition policy that is likely to hit them - and fellow Cornish Lib-Dem Dan Rogerson - at the ballot box. With the South West also a favoured hang-out of Britain's increasingly ageing population, so is the move to squeeze pensioner allowances - potentially allowing Tory MPs to sweep them away west of the Tamar.

Now the minimum pricing for booze has been unveiled, and that's got cider producers (predominantly based in the South West) up in arms too. It'll go down particularly badly in the Lib-Dem cluster of seats around Somerset, where cider is virtually worshipped.

My Friday afternoon theory is Osborne hopes these measures will make the Lib-Dems even more unpopular than they already are in some key heartlands, and is relying on Tory voters in the South West to stay loyal. If that happens, it brings an outright Conservative majority ever closer.

Craig Woodhouse
Follow me on Twitter @craigawoodhouse

Budget talks - by video link from the US?

 

The Quad is about to meet at No 10 for crunch talks on the Budget. But I hear that David Cameron is willing to hold further discussions by phone or video link from the United States if necessary this week.

That indicates that the negotiations between the PM, DPM, Chancellor and Treasury Secretary are far from settled.  And all the sticking points are said to be about tax.

“I doubt if everything will be nailed down today,” said a senior source. “But they would like to make significant progress this afternoon.”

A clampdown on stamp duty dodgers and a squeeze on pension tax relief for high earners are both set to be agreed, I hear.

But the Liberal Democrats’ Mansion Tax plan that would hit Londoners in big houses will probably be shelved for at least a year, pending a broad negotiation over taxes hitting the very wealthy, including the 50p income tax rate.

The suggestion is that the price for Mr Osborne announcing his intention to scrap the 50p rate on £150k+ earners, is a major review of all taxes on the very wealthy, including the Mansion Tax and Nick Clegg's new Tycoon Tax idea. In other words, yet another even longer negotiation.

Some Lib Dems have a brutally simple way of making it add up: If the 50p rate is found by the HMRC review to bring in £2.5 billion, then the new taxes on the wealthy should bring in the same amount, whether they are the Mansion Tax, the Tycoon Tax or a further pension squeeze.

This afternoon's talks are not the end of the discussion.

 

Joe Murphy

Follow me on Twitter    @JoeMurphyLondon

 

 

A broken-hearted Coalition?

Kudos to Unison, seizing on Valentine's Day to keep up pressure on the Government over Andrew Lansley's controversial NHS changes.

The union put on a picture stunt earlier on, with 'David Cameron' and 'Nick Clegg' holding a broken heart.

Unison's "heartfelt" plea was "not to break our hearts by breaking our NHS".

But with the Commons in recess, senior Coalition figures may be wondering if the love has dropped out of their relationship.

Not only was Lib-Dem deputy leader Simon Hughes calling for Lansley's head on Sunday, but the welfare reforms are back in the Lords and expected to suffer fresh defeats (ping pong has started). Also in the mix are Budget discussions, with the Chancellor preparing his set piece for next month.

On that note, James Forsyth had a great titbit in the Mail on Sunday - the Quad of Cameron, Osborne, Clegg and Cameron were due to have a meeting tonight after unexpectedly finding their diaries clear. But there was an obvious reason, and once wives found out some quick rescheduling took place.

Craig Woodhouse
Follow me on Twitter @craigawoodhouse

Ed's Class War dog-whistle

 

Ed Miliband won PMQTs today by playing the man as much as the ball.  Most intriguing was his heavy use of phrases like "arrogant" and "smug" towards Cameron.

"Total arrogance! ... How bad do things have to get in our economy to shake him out of his complacency."

"He and his Chancellor are the byword for self-satisfied, smug complacency."

" .. put aside [your] pride and arrogance ... "

At first glance, these are just adjectives that the focus groupies have found to be toxic for the Dave brand. But it's actually a bit more than that.

I'm told by a shadow cabinet source that the key purpose is to reinforce Ed's message that Cameron is "out of touch". But subliminally they go further, by planting the idea that the PM is an over-privileged toff.  Complacency implies he is insulated from the real world. Arrogance suggests he sees himself as belonging to an elite. Smugness, that it is an uncaring elite.  Pride suggests his sense of superiority outweighs his sense of justice.

It's reminiscent of, but much more subtle than, the controversial tactics that Gordon Brown's people tried in 2007 and 2008, when they hired kids in top hats to follow the PM around.  It all backfired, of course, and was (mostly) abandoned after a bit of a hoo-ha at the disastrous Crewe & Nantwich by-election in 2008.

My source insists the current campaign is legitimate because it is reflects Cameron's political choices, which Labour regard as favouring the few, arguing:  "We can't use class war, but we can remind people that he has not experienced in his life what they have to go through in theirs, which influences what he does."

Some may well disagree, viewing it as "playing the man" rather than the issue. But what's undeniable is that it worked this afternoon. Cameron had no ready retort.

 

 

Joe Murphy

follow me on twitter    @JoeMurphyLondon

 

 

Making light of the economy

As George Osborne prepares to deliver his autumn statement on Tuesday, the accepted wisdom is he'll have to downgrade growth forecasts and paint a bleak picture of the economy.

If he's looking for some light relief along the way, he could check out comedian Rufus Jones' representation of him as part of a campaign calling on the Chancellor to tackle food speculation on the markets.

Jones, who recently played Terry Jones in the BBC Monty Python film Flying Circus, hardly paints a flattering picture of Osborne - an interesting campaign tactic if ever I've seen one.

But running through the short videos on The Real George Osborne is an amusing fictional rivalry with Boris Johnson over the future Tory leadership. Incredulous that the Mayor is a serious contender, at one point Osborne declares: "Boris looks like a polar bear on wheels".

Whether it will succeed in getting the Chancellor to act on food speculation when the economy is flatlining is another matter.

Craig Woodhouse
Follow me on Twitter @craigawoodhouse

"Serious mistakes" yet Fox is still running

What an amazing afternoon of drama.  Liam Fox gave a bravura performance in the Commons.  Labour did not land a heavy blow, while senior Tories rallied behind him strongly.

A few moments later Downing Street released its reaction to the interim report by Ursula Brennan ... the statement talks of "serious mistakes" and implies that  the Ministerial Code was not properly adhered to  (a full copy is below). 

Gosh. Ordinarily, such a hefty criticism from No 10 would kill a minister instantly. However the choreography of Fox making an apology first in the Commons means that the sting was pulled.  Cameron can now say he was suitably severe, while Fox can say he has apologised already.

But the chase is still on. Fox's admission that he met Werritty abroad 18 times and 22 times in London raised eyebrows, and we still don't know exactly who was paying Werritty and why.

(Post script:  Defence Sources have given briefings just now where answers to these basic questions were scanty and not very convincing.  The general verdict of hacks present was that the smell is not going away.)

Here's No 10's statement in full:

A Downing Street spokesperson said:  "The Prime Minister has now seen the interim findings of the Ministry of Defence's Permanent Secretary review into Liam Fox's relationship with Mr Adam Werrity, and discussed them with the Cabinet Secretary.
"It is clear, as Liam Fox himself said yesterday, that serious mistakes were made in allowing the distinction between professional responsibilities and personal loyalties to be blurred - and this has clearly raised concerns about impropriety and potential conflicts of interest.  While the Permanent Secretary's initial conclusion is that no classified or other defence related official information was discussed with or given to Mr Werrity by the Secretary of State or the department, it is clear that much tighter procedures are needed within the department to ensure that the Ministerial Code is properly adhered to in future.
"Following these interim findings the Prime Minister has asked the Cabinet Secretary to work with the Permanent Secretary to complete the report, addressing all the remaining questions that have been raised by this issue."

 

Joe Murphy

follow me on Twitter   @JoeMurphyLondon

 

 

Osborne acts for Fox's sake

Two interesting things emerging as Foxie fights for his life.

First, there is an operation going on to help him involving George Osborne's supporters. This morning we had Greg Hands, the Chelsea and Fulham MP, going on radio and TV. Hands is Osbrone's PPS.

Then, in the Commons Fox was backed by both Hands and Matt Hancock, another trusted Osborne-ite. 

To be backed by one mate of the Chancellor is lucky. To get two in one day smacks of intrigue. Does Osborne hope for Fox's endorsement in a leadership contest in future (a valuable endorsement, especially if George is up against Boris Johnson).

Second, it emerges that Labour's defence team was treated to a freebie trip to Washington by the company run by Harvey Boulter, the same businessman that engineered a meeting with Fox via Adam Werritty. 

To be fair to the Labour trio who enjoyed the all-expenses paid trip (shadow ministers Jim Murphy and Michael Dugher plus an aide) they declared it openly in the register of interests and are not under the obligations of ministerial duty.

But it is striking that Boulter seems to have been spending big bucks to seek influence across the political spectrum.  This revelation does not get Liam Fox off the hook, but it muddies the water considerably and makes lectures about the need for long spoons a tad more difficult to press home.

 

 

Joe Murphy

follow me on Twitter  @JoeMurphyLondon

 

 

 

The rabbit in Osborne's hat

George Osborne is known for pulling out a political flourish in his big speeches and today was no exception.

It was not quite on the same scale as his show-stopping announcement on raising the inheritance tax threshold, but it was there all the same: a hint that Britain's historic and ambitious carbon emission reduction targets could be watered down.

The Chancellor vowed that Britain would cut carbon "no slower but also no faster" than fellow European nations, adding: "We’re not going to save the planet by putting our country out of business."

This is much more significant than it might sound. Britain (and the EU) is currently signed up to cut carbon emissions by 20 per cent of 1990 levels by 2020, and by 80 per cent by 2050.

In recent months the Lib-Dem Energy and Climate Change Secretary Chris Huhne has been pushing for the 2020 target to be raised to 30 per cent and has built a coalition of the willing who agree with him. But his views are not shared around the Cabinet table, and in May it emerged that Vince Cable is among those worried about over-ambitious plans hitting business. This is self-evidently Osborne's view too, and I understand Transport Secretary Philip Hammond is also in the same camp.

The major significance of Osborne's announcement is that far from not just going for 30 per cent cuts, Britain could actually water down its 20 per cent commitment if other European countries don't hit their targets.

Aides insist this is "hypothetical" and hope at least the 20 per cent target will be met, but also made clear that if a Europe-wide reduction ends up being only 15 per cent then Britain will re-think its policies to make sure the country isn't being unfairly hit.

Expect this to cause fireworks within the Coalition, as well as from green groups and Labour - Ed Miliband was a key supporter of the idea. It is hard to see how it tallies with pledges to be the "Greenest Government Ever", and will be painted as sacrificing global leadership in eco issues in the quest for growth.

Osborne will have to hope part of his peroration comes true: "We do all this because we know that the sacrifices our country makes will not be made in vain."

Craig Woodhouse
Follow me on Twitter @craigawoodhouse

Clegg demands £3 billion rich tax

Good news for the wealthy is that the 50p top rate of tax could go under a deal between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives.

Bad news for the wealthy is that the Lib-Dems are demanding another levy on the rich if the Tories want to get rid of the 50p rate before raising the starting threshold for paying income tax to £10,000 to help the less-well-off.

Even worse news for the wealthy is that the Lib-Dems want the new levy, possibly a mansion tax or land tax, to raise as much as the 50p rate was intended to bring in not what it has actually added to Treasury coffers.

The 50p rate was expected to raise £3 billion a year.

But a review by Revenue & Customs is expected to find that many rich people have managed to avoid the top rate of tax and it has raked in far less than predicted.

So, if the Lib-Dems get their way, any rejoicing by the wealthy at getting ridding of 50p may be short-lived once they realise that many of them may be paying more under a new rich tax.

Nicholas Cecil 

Balls: Lead the world, George

Shadow chancellor Ed Balls was making an interesting argument about the economy on the radio this morning.

Essentially he was saying that George Osborne should water down austerity measures to show global leadership because only Britain has the right political climate for such a move.

He told Today: "You can't have credibility without growth. The problem is in the eurozone, politically they are completely stuck, they can't reach a political agreement about what needs to be done. In America, tragically with the election coming up, the Congress and President Obama are at loggerheads, they can't politically resolve this. The irony is the one country which has got the political strength to change course is Britain and to make that argument in the world, the problem is, it's almost the opposite problem.

"Our Coalition has decided the cornerstone is sticking to a deficit reduction plan which isn't working, has flatlined our economy. Our problem is, we can't argue for sanity in the eurozone, in America, if we are sticking to a failing policy in Britain."

I find it hard to believe that Labour would hail Osborne as a strong Chancellor if he tore up his deficit-busting plans and tried to paint it as a way of "saving the world" - as Gordon Brown might put it.

There was another eye-catching line from Balls on the same topic, which might have had Angela Merkel choking on her breakfast.

He said: "In Europe austerity isn't working but the German people are not going to face up to that unless they are led to do so...Here in Britain we should be leading those debates."

Craig Woodhouse
Follow me on Twitter @craigawoodhouse

Banking battle ahead

It looks like George Osborne has an unenviable choice on the horizon with regards to banking reform.

Today it's the turn of the CBI to warn against a large-scale shake-up once the Vickers Commission reports in the coming weeks. Director General John Cridland said it would be "barking mad" to take action while the economic recovery was so fragile. It follows a similar argument yesterday from Angela Knight, the chief executive of the British Bankers Association, who said "now is not the time" for new regulation.

Both are evidence of a mounting campaign to hold back from an overhaul when Vickers reports - the commission is expected to recommend ring-fencing retail and investment banking operations.

Osborne will have to decide whether to push ahead with the recommendations and at what pace, and while he might share the concerns of the CBI and the BBA, he has another factor to balance - the demands of the Coalition.

Earlier this month Lib-Dem Lord Oakeshott warned it would be "curtains for the Coalition" if no action is taken.

"What would not be acceptable is for Vickers to come out with a radical solution and then the Government not to implement it immediately and in full," he told the Standard.

"Every Liberal Democrat from top to bottom is united about that. It will be absolutely critical - a Lib-Dem red line, bottom line, sine qua non - whatever you want to call it. That will be crunch time for the Coalition. If the Vickers Report is kicked into the long grass, it will be curtains for the Coalition."

It will be interesting to see what Osborne comes up with.

Craig Woodhouse
Follow me on Twitter @craigawoodhouse